13TH ICCRTS “C2 for Complex Endeavors” An Analysis of Situation Development in the Context of Contemporary Warfare

This paper is the result of an analysis of the Situation Development process as carried out today by the US Army in both conventional and unconventional (e.g., asymmetric, counterinsurgency and urban) warfare. Definitions of situation development in current field manuals and other doctrinal documents are almost exclusively confined to its application to conventional warfare in which the enemy is clearly defined, its operational strategies and tactics are well understood, the activities occurring on the battlefield can be finely monitored with deployed sensors and observers, and situations unfold over hours or days. In confrontations faced by today’s military the enemy is often poorly defined and hard to differentiate from civilians, its modes of operation are evolving and lack a standardized military doctrine, its activities must be gleaned primarily from human intelligence, and situations develop over months or years. The analysis outlined in this paper attempts to define situation development in a way that accounts for the new face of contemporary warfare. In addition, we present a breakdown of the situation development process to help elucidate various aspects of the problem that make it particularly challenging in the context of unconventional warfare.